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Shock study claims curfews didn’t slow coronavirus spread despite ‘destroying…

by ace
Shock study claims curfews didn’t slow coronavirus spread despite ‘destroying...

The report was written by Marko Kolanovic, a trained physicist and strategist at the bank. Since the emergence of the new coronavirus in China at the end of last year, countries imposed blockades to try to contain their spread. This led to an unprecedented economic collapse, as economies around the world stopped.

Economists predicted a global recession to rival the Great Depression of the 1930s and millions of workers have already lost their jobs.

Kolanovic argued that governments were frightened by "flawed scientific articles" to impose "inefficient or backward" blockages and with little effect.

He wrote: “Although we often hear that the blockages are motivated by scientific models and that there is an exact relationship between the level of economic activity and the spread of the virus – this is not supported by the data.

“In fact, practically everywhere, infection rates decreased after reopening, even after allowing an appropriate measurement delay.

"This means that the pandemic and Covid-19 probably have their own dynamics, unrelated to the often inconsistent blocking measures that were being implemented."

He added: "The fact that the reopening did not change the course of the pandemic is consistent with studies showing that the initiation of complete blocks did not change the course of the pandemic either."

Since the blockade eased, Denmark is one of many countries that has seen its R number continue to decline, while Germany's rate has remained mostly below 1.0.

R represents the reproduction rate of the deadly virus and anything below 1.0 indicates that new infections are falling, while anything above that limit shows that infections are increasing.

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"However, many of these efforts have been inefficient or delayed."

He goes on to say that the blockages remained in place, even when new data showed that curfews were ineffective in changing the course of the pandemic.

"At the same time, millions of livelihoods were being destroyed by these blockades," he wrote.

In addition to questioning the wisdom of imposing blockades, the report suggests that savings could now be reopened more quickly.

Last month, a professor at Oxford University questioned the effectiveness of Boris Johnson's blocking measures.

Professor Carl Heneghan said that the peak of new cases had come on April 8, implying a high point of infection three weeks earlier, around March 18, five days before the Prime Minister's announcement that the country was coming into contact. containment.

The World Health Organization has urged countries to practice "extreme vigilance" by lifting the curfew.

The UN agency warned governments that "there is always a risk that the virus will take off".

WHO chief Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said a comprehensive package of measures is needed until a vaccine becomes available, which is likely to take at least many months.


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